The Long-term Planning (LTP) module supports long-term analysis of load development in distribution networks. It enables planners to assess how future changes, such as new connections and electrification trends, will impact network capacity over time.

The module focuses on long-term structural changes in demand rather than short-term operational variations. It provides a foundation for strategic planning and helps guide investment decisions.

With the LTP module, you can:

•Estimate future peak demand growth.

•Assess available network capacity over time.

•Evaluate electrification trends, such as electric vehicle (EV) charging.

•Model demand from new connections and developments.

•Compare different planning scenarios (for example High, Expected, and Low).

 

How it works

The module models long-term load development using two main approaches:

•Connection-driven demand - Forecasts based on planned projects and new connections linked to network objects.

•Electrification growth (DER – Distributed Energy Resources) - Statistical modelling of demand growth, currently focused on electrification such as EV charging.

The result is a structured yearly forecast of additional peak load. The data is aggregated:

•Per planning area (geographical scope).

•Across relevant network hierarchy levels (for example feeder, secondary substation, primary substation, and high-voltage network), based on defined coincidence factors.

 

The LTP module provides a long-term demand forecast to support planning. It does not replace detailed network design or operational analysis.

Instead, it is intended to:

•Support early-stage planning.

•Provide input for investment decisions.

•Highlight potential capacity constraints over time.

 

Target users

The LTP module is intended for users working with long-term planning and network development, such as:

•Distribution network planners

•Long-term investment planners

•Strategic asset management teams

•Capacity and development planners